When you read other articles about backgammon probabilities you will notice an approach of accepting “2+1” and “1+2” as two different dice roll possibilities! But I don’t like this popular way of thinking within backgammon players, in my point of view these two results are very same. It’s only a situation when one dice comes “1” and the other “2”, 1 on left dice, 2 on right dice, or 1 on red dice, 2 on the blue one! But when you say the number to play loudly, it’s 2 and 1, that’s it!

Backgammon is not a game that you play with the left dice first and then with the right dice, one by one, separately; it’s a game that you play by the result of two dices! So I consider them like values to play “1 and 2” or “3” which also mean two possibilities, but in a different way. This is important when you consider “5+4” as “5 and 4” or “9”; also double6 as “12” or “18” or “24”! Furthermore, in my way too, there are 36 possibilities as mentioned in major backgammon tutorials: 6 different doubles, 15 combinations, and 15 sums of 2 dices!

So when you are obliged to leave a blot (a single or weak checker) try to avoid positions attainable by 6, then 4, then 5 and 3. And prefer 7 to 8! Check the followings to find out why!

Double numbers: 6

Double 1 means 4 times 1; or 1, 2, 3, 4

Double 2 means 4 times 2; or 2, 4, 6, 8

Double 3 means 4 times 3; or 3, 6, 9, 12

Double 4 means 4 times 4; or 4, 8, 12, 16

Double 5 means 4 times 5; or 5, 10, 15, 20

Double 6 means 4 times 6; or 6, 12, 18, 24

Possible combinations: 30

1 + 2 = 1, 2, or 3

1 + 3 = 1, 3, or 4

1 + 4 = 1, 4, or 5

2 + 3 = 2, 3, or 5

1 + 5 = 1, 5, or 6

2 + 4 = 2, 4, or 6

1 + 6 = 1, 6, or 7

2 + 5 = 2, 5, or 7

3 + 4 = 3, 4, or 7

2 + 6 = 2, 6, or 8

3 + 5 = 3, 5, or 8

3 + 6 = 3, 6, or 9

4 + 5 = 4, 5, or 9

4 + 6 = 4, 6, or 10

5 + 6 = 5, 6, or 11

Probability of numbers that you may get in 100 rolls:

1 = 9 times

2 = 10 times

3 = 11 times

4 = 12 times

5 = 11 times

6 = 13 times

7 = 03 times

8 = 04 times

9 = 03 times

10 = 02 times

11 = 01 time

12 = 03 times

15 = 01 time

16 = 01 time

18 = 01 time

20 = 01 time

24 = 01 time

Percentage (in 100 rolls):

% 10.35 for “1”

% 11.49 for “2”

% 12.64 for “3”

% 13.79 for “4”

% 12.64 for “5”

% 14.94 for “6”

% 03.45 for “7”

% 04.60 for “8”

% 03.45 for “9”

% 02.30 for “10”

% 01.15 for “11”

% 03.45 for “12” and

% 01.15 for “15”,”16″,”18″,”20″ and “24”

By Amy Guven
Amy Guven is a founder partner of Vitalinfocenter.com since 2000 and an advanced backgammon player. Visit backgammon tips and advice and find out vital tips, tricks, strategies and information on how to play better backgammon.